Port Alert
New Orleans / Mississippi River
September 09, 2024
Notices
Southeast Louisiana and Southern Mississippi partners -
Here is an update concerning Tropical Storm Francine.
Changes from previous update:
- The forecast track has shifted slightly west from the previous advisory
- The forecast intensity has increased slightly from the previous advisory
- The storm surge watch has been upgraded to a warning west of the MS River
- The tropical storm watch has been expanded to include more inland areas west of I-55
- A tropical storm Warning has been issued for areas that previously had a hurricane watch (the watch also still remains in effect)
- A flood watch has been issued for the whole area
Overview:
- TS Francine is forecast to move generally northwestward tonight before turning northeastward tomorrow and is expected to bring impacts to the local area mainly late Tuesday night through Wednesday night
- Francine is forecast to strengthen to a category 2 hurricane before landfall along the central Louisiana coast
Confidence:
- We are confident this storm will result in significant to life-threatening impacts across portions of the local area, with the greatest threats being flooding rain and storm surge
- We are less confident in the impacts to specific locations (e.g. how MUCH rain each location will receive or how strong winds will be in specific locations)
Impacts:
· Widespread rainfall totals of 4-6" are forecast with locally higher amounts. Most of this rain will fall Wednesday and Wednesday night. With saturated soils from recent heavy rains, this additional rain could quickly lead to ponding of water in low lying and poor drainage areas or isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding. Rises on area rivers are also likely, but will depend on where the heaviest rain falls.
· Moderate to major coastal flooding will be possible. Some low lying roads, lots and access routes could be flooded during the time of high tide, with the greatest impacts Wed and Thurs mornings. While there is no threat to the federal levee systems, some lower local levees may be overtopped and areas outside of the levees could experience life-threatening flooding and become cut off. The highest water levels are generally expected west of Port Fourchon.
· Strong tropical storm force winds could result in damage mainly Wednesday and Wednesday night. The strongest winds will occur near where Francine's center tracks and could result in power outages as well as damage to trees, mobile homes, and some roofs.
· A few tornadoes will be possible late Tuesday night through Wednesday night
The attached briefing highlights the threats associated with this system.
Additional Information and Resources:
NWS New Orleans Website: www.weather.gov/neworleans
NWS New Orleans DSS Website: http://www.weather.gov/lix/embrief
NWS New Orleans Tropical Page: https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=lix
River Gauges and Forecasts: https://water.noaa.gov/wfo/LIX
NWS New Orleans Facebook: www.facebook.com/NWSNewOrleans
NWS New Orleans Twitter: https://twitter.com/NWSNewOrleans
Online Severe Weather Reporting: https://www.weather.gov/lix/submit_storm_report
National Hurricane Center Website: https:///www.nhc.noaa.gov
Next Update and Contact Information:
The next update will be sent following the 10pm forecast update from NHC. If you have any questions in the interim or need additional information, please do not hesitate to contact us. We can be reached by phone at 504-522-7330 or 985-649-0429. Use extension 4 to speak with a forecaster. Alternatively, you can reach us by email by replying to this message or sending an email to sr-lix.forecasters@noaa.gov. Both methods will be delivered to the forecasters on shift at the office.
Regards,
Danielle Manning
Meteorologist
NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge
